{"F": {"ts_code": "600246.SH", "name": "万通发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000922", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.1337, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2319927.075, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.9, 35.2, 39.1, 30.9, 35.3, 20.3], "rev_series": [13.6, 8.1, 4.2, 4.9, 4.9, 4.6], "np_series": [0.5, 1.8, -3.2, -3.9, -4.6, -6.5], "roe_series": [0.7, 2.6, -5.0, -6.7, -8.5, -13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": -8.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 35.2, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": -81.2, "roe_median": -6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.4, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 9.8, "pb_calc": 5.13, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 17.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 35.4, "debt_mv": 7.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 22.5, "np_yoy": -664.2, "np_vol": 170.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["房屋销售收入", 15.0], ["房屋销售", 15.0], ["物业出租", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.1, "ret_prev2_year": 14.8, "ret_ytd": -2.9, "ret_pivot": 98.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -30.3, "ret_120": 10.2, "ret_250": -6.5, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 76.3, "pos_52w": 57.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 2, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -8.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 35%,有息负债 17 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -30% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "万通发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}