{"F": {"ts_code": "600239.SH", "name": "ST云城", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "商业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1002, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 231218.9136, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.9, 35.1, 35.8, 37.9, 35.0, 33.2], "rev_series": [43.9, 60.5, 25.7, 19.5, 19.3, 17.5], "np_series": [-25.9, -5.1, -8.4, -0.8, -0.5, -2.9], "roe_series": [-220.9, -309.4, -76.9, -5.3, -3.7, -24.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.0, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 16.6, "ocf_yield": 17.0, "gm_median": 35.1, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -12.1, "npm_median": -16.3, "roe_median": -24.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.8, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.1, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 44.4, "debt_ebitda": 15.2, "debt_ratio": 80.9, "debt_mv": 192.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -11.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -27.9, "np_yoy": 280.6, "np_vol": 211.9, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["商业管理", 21.0], ["物业服务", 14.0], ["酒店运营", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.0, "ret_prev2_year": 3.5, "ret_ytd": -38.7, "ret_pivot": -29.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -37.4, "ret_250": -42.9, "mdd_250": -58.5, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 48.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 14, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 81%,有息负债 44 亿,经营现金流/市值 17.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.1%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 16.6%(经营现金流/市值 17.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 3% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "ST云城:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点。"]}}