{"F": {"ts_code": "600238.SH", "name": "ST椰岛", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "其他酒类", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.82, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 31.041, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 216032.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 18.2, 28.5, 28.0, 30.7, 37.9], "rev_series": [8.1, 8.3, 4.2, 2.2, 1.8, 3.7], "np_series": [0.2, -0.6, -1.2, -1.5, -1.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [3.6, -15.4, -28.1, -51.2, -73.7, -32.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 28.5, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": -28.2, "roe_median": -32.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.0, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 31.04, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 88.5, "debt_mv": 9.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 94.0, "np_yoy": 52.2, "np_vol": 206.5, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["酒类", 38.0], ["食品饮料类", 7.0], ["食品饮料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.1, "ret_prev2_year": -24.9, "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_pivot": -29.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.9, "ret_60": -1.6, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": -31.9, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 40.6, "pos_52w": 68.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 27, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 88%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.5%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / -2% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "ST椰岛:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}