{"F": {"ts_code": "600235.SH", "name": "民丰特纸", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.88, "pe_ttm": 258.9654, "pb": 1.3658, "dv_ttm": 0.2551, "total_mv": 206564.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 17.9, 12.0, 13.8, 16.5, 15.4], "rev_series": [13.5, 15.3, 16.7, 16.2, 14.6, 12.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.2], "roe_series": [3.7, 4.3, 1.1, 3.3, 4.9, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 6.8, "ocf_yield": 12.6, "gm_median": 15.4, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.2, "fix_assets": 17.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 1.23, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 8.3, "debt_ratio": 49.4, "debt_mv": 54.5, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.3, "np_cagr3": 1.9, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": -55.1, "np_vol": 102.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["卷烟纸", 19.0], ["工业配套纸", 14.0], ["工业配套用纸", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.3, "ret_prev2_year": -6.8, "ret_ytd": -13.3, "ret_pivot": 31.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": 5.6, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -12.6, "mdd_250": -33.4, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 80.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 93, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 1.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 259.0 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 6% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "民丰特纸:PE 比行业中位高 237.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.3个百分点。"]}}