{"F": {"ts_code": "600233.SH", "name": "圆通速递", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "快递", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.98, "pe_ttm": 10.2598, "pb": 1.5651, "dv_ttm": 1.4719, "total_mv": 5813979.9117, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.0, 8.2, 11.3, 10.2, 9.4, 9.5], "rev_series": [349.1, 451.5, 535.4, 576.8, 690.3, 752.8], "np_series": [17.7, 21.0, 39.2, 37.2, 40.1, 43.2], "roe_series": [11.8, 10.6, 15.9, 13.4, 13.3, 13.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 782.9, "np_ttm": 56.7, "ocf_ttm": 91.7, "fcf_ttm": 15.2, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 15.8, "gm_median": 9.5, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.1, "fix_assets": 292.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.57, "capex_dep": 3.13, "interest_debt": 83.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 33.1, "debt_mv": 14.4, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": 3.3, "rev_yoy": 8.4, "np_yoy": 73.4, "np_vol": 32.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 51.0, "earn_yield": 9.7, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 9.5, "fwd_pe2": 8.2, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["国内时效产品", 86.0], ["货代服务", 4.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.1, "ret_prev2_year": 19.9, "ret_ytd": 5.0, "ret_pivot": 14.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -2.0, "mdd_250": -31.5, "vol_250": 35.1, "pos_52w": 76.7}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 45, "hard": 83, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 10.3 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%、固定资产占比 52%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 15.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 3.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.3 倍 粗算,约 51%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 0% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "圆通速递:PE 比行业中位低 11.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.5个百分点。"]}}