{"F": {"ts_code": "600232.SH", "name": "金鹰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "纺织服装设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.62, "pe_ttm": 49.0257, "pb": 2.4902, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 241443.647, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.4, 14.7, 16.3, 16.3, 17.8, 14.2], "rev_series": [10.1, 12.1, 13.0, 13.7, 13.1, 14.0], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [2.9, 4.6, 4.7, 3.4, 2.2, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.2, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 6.9, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.0, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.49, "capex_dep": 3.68, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 45.8, "debt_mv": 15.5, "payout": 241.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": -25.1, "rev_yoy": 19.5, "np_yoy": 324.0, "np_vol": 31.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["纺织品", 28.0], ["注塑机及配件", 12.0], ["纺机及配件", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.2, "ret_prev2_year": -10.2, "ret_ytd": -16.3, "ret_pivot": 55.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": -3.8, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -7.9, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 70.7}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 52, "hard": 29, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 49.0 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 3.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -4% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "金鹰股份:PE 比行业中位高 6.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}