{"F": {"ts_code": "600231.SH", "name": "凌钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "长材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.75, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5343, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 502611.095, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.5, 7.3, -1.6, -0.8, -6.0, -6.0], "rev_series": [203.0, 261.5, 215.6, 203.2, 181.0, 156.6], "np_series": [5.6, 9.2, -8.3, -6.8, -16.8, -15.6], "roe_series": [7.0, 10.5, -9.6, -8.8, -25.7, -32.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 161.0, "np_ttm": -17.9, "ocf_ttm": -3.8, "fcf_ttm": -7.3, "fcf_yield": -14.5, "ocf_yield": -7.5, "gm_median": -1.6, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 4.04, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": -3.9, "roe_median": -9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.6, "fix_assets": 99.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 0.67, "interest_debt": 46.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 78.4, "debt_mv": 93.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -10.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.0, "np_yoy": -39.8, "np_vol": 100.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["钢材销售", 48.0], ["其他销售", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.6, "ret_prev2_year": -16.7, "ret_ytd": -18.2, "ret_pivot": 18.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.2, "ret_60": -4.4, "ret_120": -27.4, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -41.9, "vol_250": 39.4, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 66%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -1.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点;资产负债率 78%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -1.6%,稳定度 404%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -14.5%(经营现金流/市值 -7.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -1.6%,稳定度 404%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 0.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -4% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "凌钢股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点。"]}}