{"F": {"ts_code": "600230.SH", "name": "沧州大化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "聚氨酯", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000406", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.62, "pe_ttm": 55.9322, "pb": 1.4728, "dv_ttm": 0.1573, "total_mv": 605210.982, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.1, 18.0, 16.1, 13.4, 6.5, 7.4], "rev_series": [16.5, 23.9, 49.1, 48.7, 50.7, 45.6], "np_series": [0.4, 2.2, 4.2, 1.9, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [1.0, 6.0, 10.9, 4.8, 0.7, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.7, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": 9.1, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 72.6, "fix_assets": 43.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.47, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 26.2, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": -58.1, "rev_yoy": -4.1, "np_yoy": 330.8, "np_vol": 565.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.2, "fwd_pe2": 14.3, "fwd_g1": 244.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主营业务", 50.0], ["TDI", 22.0], ["改性聚碳酸酯(PC)系列", 15.0], ["其他业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.7, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -4.0, "ret_pivot": 56.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": 3.1, "ret_120": -31.0, "ret_250": 8.9, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 55.0, "pos_52w": 55.2}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 41, "hard": 100, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 73%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 73%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 73%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.9 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 3% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "沧州大化:PE 比行业中位高 20.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 38.1个百分点。"]}}