{"F": {"ts_code": "600227.SH", "name": "赤天化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "氮肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.29, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.1329, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 724464.1833, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.4, 19.3, 5.8, 7.9, 9.6, 6.5], "rev_series": [19.3, 21.8, 25.2, 22.5, 23.8, 21.6], "np_series": [0.6, -0.5, -3.7, -1.2, -0.9, -2.8], "roe_series": [1.8, -1.6, -12.4, -4.4, -3.3, -11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.7, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 7.9, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.38, "gm_chg_2022": -25.6, "npm_median": -5.5, "roe_median": -4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.7, "fix_assets": 24.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.13, "capex_dep": 0.43, "interest_debt": 11.8, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 16.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": 179.3, "np_vol": 239.9, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["主营业务", 35.0], ["尿素", 15.0], ["甲醇", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.7, "ret_prev2_year": -8.0, "ret_ytd": 80.3, "ret_pivot": 169.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 28.4, "ret_60": 43.0, "ret_120": -1.8, "ret_250": 67.6, "mdd_250": -54.6, "vol_250": 68.4, "pos_52w": 81.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 21, "hard": 91, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%,稳定度 38%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%,稳定度 38%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 68%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 43% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "赤天化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.1个百分点。"]}}