{"F": {"ts_code": "600221.SH", "name": "海航控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航空机场", "sw3": "航空运输", "ind": "航空机场", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.3, "pe_ttm": 25.6203, "pb": 10.2266, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5618032.225, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-41.1, -25.8, -51.4, 10.5, 7.4, 7.7], "rev_series": [294.0, 340.0, 228.6, 586.4, 652.4, 684.7], "np_series": [-640.0, 47.2, -202.5, 3.1, -9.2, 19.8], "roe_series": [-537.8, null, -419.4, 17.9, -40.2, 52.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 709.0, "np_ttm": 21.9, "ocf_ttm": 166.5, "fcf_ttm": 140.1, "fcf_yield": 24.9, "ocf_yield": 29.6, "gm_median": 7.4, "gm_std": 24.5, "gm_stab": -2.31, "gm_chg_2022": -10.3, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": -11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.3, "fix_assets": 421.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 10.23, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 1081.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.8, "debt_ratio": 96.5, "debt_mv": 192.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 44.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.4, "np_yoy": 374.4, "np_vol": 324.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 43.3, "fwd_pe2": 20.5, "fwd_g1": -41.0, "fwd_g2": 111.0, "peg": 0.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["客运收入", 29.0], ["客运及其他", 29.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.5, "ret_prev2_year": 24.1, "ret_ytd": -28.2, "ret_pivot": 26.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": -12.2, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": -18.2, "mdd_250": -31.6, "vol_250": 29.8, "pos_52w": 68.4}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 7, "hard": 44, "bondness": 15}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 374%,PE TTM 25.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 43.3 倍,PEG 0.39。", "自由现金流 140.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 111%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 24.9%(经营现金流/市值 29.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.4%,稳定度 -231%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -12% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空机场」12 家中位:PE 19.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 11.6% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 40%。", "海航控股:PE 比行业中位高 6.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}