{"F": {"ts_code": "600219.SH", "name": "南山铝业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.92, "pe_ttm": 12.966, "pb": 1.1334, "dv_ttm": 8.8348, "total_mv": 5649981.1872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.7, 24.6, 20.9, 20.3, 27.2, 25.2], "rev_series": [223.0, 287.3, 349.5, 288.4, 334.8, 346.2], "np_series": [20.5, 34.1, 35.2, 34.7, 48.3, 47.4], "roe_series": [5.1, 8.2, 8.0, 7.4, 9.8, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 359.2, "np_ttm": 43.6, "ocf_ttm": 47.2, "fcf_ttm": 10.4, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 24.6, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 37.5, "fix_assets": 277.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 1.71, "interest_debt": 62.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 20.3, "debt_mv": 11.1, "payout": 63.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": 10.4, "rev_yoy": 7.5, "np_yoy": -14.4, "np_vol": 27.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 10.7, "fwd_pe2": 8.8, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冷轧卷/板", 30.0], ["冷轧产品", 30.0], ["氧化铝粉", 9.0], ["氧化铝", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.9, "ret_prev2_year": 52.8, "ret_ytd": -6.2, "ret_pivot": 54.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -32.0, "ret_250": 27.6, "mdd_250": -51.0, "vol_250": 52.6, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 70, "hard": 60, "bondness": 75}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "商品定价", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 278 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.8%,股息率 8.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 61%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.0 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 7% / -32%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "南山铝业:PE 比行业中位低 7.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点。"]}}