{"F": {"ts_code": "600210.SH", "name": "紫江企业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.11, "pe_ttm": 8.3589, "pb": 1.3821, "dv_ttm": 5.7283, "total_mv": 926725.8182, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 21.2, 20.6, 21.4, 23.8, 23.2], "rev_series": [84.2, 95.3, 96.1, 91.2, 106.4, 96.0], "np_series": [5.7, 5.5, 6.0, 5.6, 8.1, 10.4], "roe_series": [11.0, 10.2, 10.9, 9.9, 13.6, 16.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 91.9, "np_ttm": 11.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 21.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.1, "fix_assets": 46.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 38.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 50.4, "debt_mv": 41.7, "payout": 56.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.0, "np_cagr3": 19.8, "rev_yoy": -7.8, "np_yoy": 15.1, "np_vol": 19.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 40.0, "earn_yield": 12.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 10.2, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": -18.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["饮料包装制品", 22.0], ["饮料包装", 22.0], ["纸塑包装", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.4, "ret_prev2_year": 56.8, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": 42.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 1.7, "ret_120": -13.9, "ret_250": -1.0, "mdd_250": -26.0, "vol_250": 29.6, "pos_52w": 78.1}, "S": {"duration": 19, "pricing": 50, "hard": 53, "bondness": 77}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 56%、股息率 5.7%、营收 3 年复合 -0.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.4 倍 粗算,约 40%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 2% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "紫江企业:PE 比行业中位低 30.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}