{"F": {"ts_code": "600199.SH", "name": "金种子酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.614, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 495320.9904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.7, 28.8, 26.4, 40.3, 34.9, 39.0], "rev_series": [10.4, 12.1, 11.9, 14.7, 9.3, 7.2], "np_series": [0.7, -1.7, -1.9, -0.2, -2.6, -2.0], "roe_series": [2.4, -5.9, -7.1, -0.9, -11.0, -9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -5.9, "ocf_yield": -5.2, "gm_median": 34.9, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": -15.7, "roe_median": -7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.4, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 34.1, "debt_mv": 8.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -15.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -51.2, "np_yoy": 10.2, "np_vol": 429.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["酒类", 33.0], ["白酒", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.2, "ret_prev2_year": -28.2, "ret_ytd": -22.2, "ret_pivot": -29.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": 12.9, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -35.0, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 44, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 34%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.9%(经营现金流/市值 -5.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 13% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "金种子酒:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 39.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}