{"F": {"ts_code": "600198.SH", "name": "大唐电信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.54, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 47.9305, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 982917.039, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.0, 40.0, 47.6, 45.5, 45.4, 41.8], "rev_series": [12.1, 13.1, 10.7, 10.2, 9.4, 10.1], "np_series": [-13.6, -0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, -0.6], "roe_series": [null, null, 8.1, 9.7, 8.8, -19.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 45.4, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 15.6, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 47.93, "capex_dep": 5.16, "interest_debt": 12.7, "debt_ebitda": 37.8, "debt_ratio": 78.9, "debt_mv": 13.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 30.5, "np_yoy": 24.8, "np_vol": 162.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.8, "ret_prev2_year": 31.4, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": -11.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": -19.9, "ret_120": -14.1, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 49.8, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 67, "hard": 6, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 79%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.4%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 5.16 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -20% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "大唐电信:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}