{"F": {"ts_code": "600197.SH", "name": "伊力特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990916", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.7, "pe_ttm": 33.8298, "pb": 1.159, "dv_ttm": 4.433, "total_mv": 458979.459, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.6, 51.4, 48.0, 48.2, 52.3, 51.1], "rev_series": [18.0, 19.4, 16.2, 22.3, 22.0, 17.2], "np_series": [3.4, 3.1, 1.7, 3.4, 2.9, 2.2], "roe_series": [10.8, 8.7, 4.5, 9.1, 7.4, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -6.4, "ocf_yield": -3.4, "gm_median": 51.1, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.7, "fix_assets": 19.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.16, "capex_dep": 1.04, "interest_debt": 12.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 30.3, "debt_mv": 26.1, "payout": 74.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": 9.4, "rev_yoy": -32.1, "np_yoy": -49.6, "np_vol": 53.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 23.6, "fwd_pe2": 20.3, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["酒类商品", 33.0], ["酒类产品", 33.0], ["其他商品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.1, "ret_prev2_year": -20.1, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": -27.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": -3.1, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -40.7, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 25.8, "pos_52w": 60.5}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 67, "hard": 54, "bondness": 78}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 19 亿,占总资产 34%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 51.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -6.4%,股息率 4.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 85%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 34%)和定价权(毛利率 51.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.4%(经营现金流/市值 -3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.8 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -3% / -22%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "伊力特:PE 比行业中位高 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点。"]}}