{"F": {"ts_code": "600196.SH", "name": "复星医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980807", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.34, "pe_ttm": 17.5977, "pb": 1.2242, "dv_ttm": 1.7293, "total_mv": 5965739.0562, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.7, 48.1, 47.3, 47.8, 48.0, 50.1], "rev_series": [303.1, 390.1, 439.5, 414.0, 410.7, 416.6], "np_series": [36.6, 47.4, 37.3, 23.9, 27.7, 33.7], "roe_series": [10.6, 12.4, 8.9, 5.3, 6.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 425.9, "np_ttm": 33.9, "ocf_ttm": 55.0, "fcf_ttm": 7.0, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 48.0, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.9, "fix_assets": 211.7, "goodwill_ratio": 8.5, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 2.61, "interest_debt": 408.4, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 49.5, "debt_mv": 68.5, "payout": 30.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -3.3, "rev_yoy": 4.8, "np_yoy": 1.1, "np_vol": 25.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 15.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.0, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["合计特别调整", 17.0], ["其他业务", 17.0], ["肿瘤及免疫调节核心产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.1, "ret_prev2_year": 0.4, "ret_ytd": -14.4, "ret_pivot": 3.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.9, "ret_60": 4.4, "ret_120": -11.2, "ret_250": -22.3, "mdd_250": -34.4, "vol_250": 28.1, "pos_52w": 70.3}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 62, "hard": 27, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.6 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 48.0%、固定资产占比 17%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.0%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.0%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.61 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.6 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 4% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "复星医药:PE 比行业中位低 19.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}