{"F": {"ts_code": "600195.SH", "name": "中牧股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "动物保健Ⅱ", "sw3": "动物保健Ⅲ", "ind": "动物保健Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.9, "pe_ttm": 50.5446, "pb": 1.2326, "dv_ttm": 0.7391, "total_mv": 704592.327, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.2, 29.1, 21.6, 19.8, 16.4, 17.5], "rev_series": [50.0, 53.0, 58.9, 54.1, 60.2, 62.0], "np_series": [4.2, 5.1, 5.5, 4.0, 0.7, 1.7], "roe_series": [9.8, 10.9, 10.8, 7.5, 1.3, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.8, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 11.5, "fcf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_yield": 13.2, "ocf_yield": 16.3, "gm_median": 19.8, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.2, "fix_assets": 30.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.23, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 11.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 30.2, "debt_mv": 15.8, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": -32.2, "rev_yoy": 13.5, "np_yoy": -39.0, "np_vol": 74.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 31.1, "fwd_pe2": 23.8, "fwd_g1": 63.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 1.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["化药", 16.0], ["贸易收入", 15.0], ["贸易", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.8, "ret_prev2_year": -43.1, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": 22.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -14.1, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -34.3, "vol_250": 30.7, "pos_52w": 77.4}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 41, "hard": 52, "bondness": 40}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.2%(经营现金流/市值 16.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.5 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 5% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「动物保健Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 37.8 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 39.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 64%。", "中牧股份:PE 比行业中位高 12.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}