{"F": {"ts_code": "600191.SH", "name": "华资实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.35, "pe_ttm": 55.285, "pb": 2.9263, "dv_ttm": 0.2174, "total_mv": 501904.62, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.1, 18.9, 11.2, 8.6, 8.3, 7.5], "rev_series": [0.4, 0.4, 3.7, 6.4, 5.2, 6.3], "np_series": [-1.3, 0.1, -1.7, 0.2, 0.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [-7.0, 0.6, -10.5, 1.3, 1.6, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.51, "gm_chg_2022": 8.2, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.4, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 23.8, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 18.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 19.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 58.0, "np_yoy": 722.6, "np_vol": 741.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["粮食深加工产品", 49.0], ["制糖产品", 1.0], ["农副食品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 86.0, "ret_prev2_year": 11.8, "ret_ytd": -19.3, "ret_pivot": 118.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.3, "ret_60": -3.1, "ret_120": -19.9, "ret_250": 16.1, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 74.0}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 33, "hard": 57, "bondness": 16}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 51%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 51%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.3 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -3% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "华资实业:PE 比行业中位高 16.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}