{"F": {"ts_code": "600189.SH", "name": "泉阳泉", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "软饮料", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981007", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.96, "pe_ttm": 187.6317, "pb": 4.5002, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 569297.4488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.5, 37.6, 34.2, 32.4, 31.9, 36.4], "rev_series": [13.7, 14.7, 12.7, 11.2, 12.0, 12.6], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 0.6, -4.6, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [5.7, 6.8, 3.5, -32.2, 0.5, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 34.2, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.5, "capex_dep": 1.99, "interest_debt": 14.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 64.7, "debt_mv": 26.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": -35.9, "rev_yoy": 13.5, "np_yoy": 65.0, "np_vol": 385.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 91.0, "fwd_pe2": 37.5, "fwd_g1": 106.0, "fwd_g2": 143.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["饮品", 32.0], ["矿泉水", 32.0], ["门业产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.2, "ret_prev2_year": -31.1, "ret_ytd": 15.2, "ret_pivot": 13.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.7, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -2.6, "ret_250": 4.6, "mdd_250": -23.6, "vol_250": 30.6, "pos_52w": 88.4}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 55, "hard": 27, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 187.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 91.0 倍,次年 37.5 倍,PEG 0.64。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.2%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.99 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 187.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 3% / -3%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "泉阳泉:PE 比行业中位高 158.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点。"]}}