{"F": {"ts_code": "600188.SH", "name": "兖矿能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.56, "pe_ttm": 20.2399, "pb": 2.8155, "dv_ttm": 2.3187, "total_mv": 21639452.912, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.2, 29.4, 40.9, 40.6, 35.8, 29.3], "rev_series": [2149.9, 1519.9, 2008.3, 1500.2, 1391.2, 1449.3], "np_series": [71.2, 162.6, 307.7, 201.4, 144.3, 83.8], "roe_series": [12.1, 26.6, 37.8, 24.1, 18.6, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1612.3, "np_ttm": 112.0, "ocf_ttm": 197.6, "fcf_ttm": -28.7, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 9.1, "gm_median": 35.8, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 27.7, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 24.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 35.4, "fix_assets": 1645.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 1.48, "interest_debt": 1299.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": 60.0, "payout": 59.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.3, "np_cagr3": -35.2, "rev_yoy": 13.0, "np_yoy": 45.0, "np_vol": 72.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 25, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 11.9, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["煤炭销售", 23.0], ["煤炭业务", 23.0], ["煤化工、电力及热力", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.3, "ret_prev2_year": 2.4, "ret_ytd": 68.0, "ret_pivot": 69.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": 0.5, "ret_250": 66.9, "mdd_250": -35.3, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 80.0}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 70, "hard": 57, "bondness": 64}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 1645 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.3%,股息率 2.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 75%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 27.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.2 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 67%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -5% / 0%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "兖矿能源:PE 比行业中位低 5.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.1个百分点。"]}}