{"F": {"ts_code": "600186.SH", "name": "莲花控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.88, "pe_ttm": 54.419, "pb": 10.5633, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2129804.4636, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 12.3, 14.1, 17.1, 25.3, 27.4], "rev_series": [16.5, 18.1, 16.9, 21.0, 26.5, 34.5], "np_series": [0.7, 0.4, 0.5, 1.3, 2.0, 3.1], "roe_series": [21.3, 5.0, 3.3, 8.8, 12.5, 16.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.5, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.4, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.56, "capex_dep": 0.16, "interest_debt": 9.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 45.8, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 26.9, "np_cagr3": 88.5, "rev_yoy": 18.1, "np_yoy": 51.0, "np_vol": 74.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 47.0, "fwd_pe2": 34.8, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["味精等氨基酸调味品", 22.0], ["味精", 22.0], ["鸡精等复合调味品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.9, "ret_prev2_year": -5.8, "ret_ytd": 98.7, "ret_pivot": 280.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 20.1, "ret_60": -5.9, "ret_120": 97.0, "ret_250": 81.4, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 66.8, "pos_52w": 76.2}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 36, "hard": 23, "bondness": 4}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.4 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.16 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 81%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / -6% / 97%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "莲花控股:PE 比行业中位高 27.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 24.3个百分点。"]}}