{"F": {"ts_code": "600184.SH", "name": "光电股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20031106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.8, "pe_ttm": 189.9911, "pb": 3.0361, "dv_ttm": 0.1854, "total_mv": 1037254.95, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 10.7, 14.5, 16.7, 9.8, 18.1], "rev_series": [24.9, 33.1, 25.1, 22.0, 13.0, 24.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, -2.1, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.2, 2.6, 2.9, 2.7, -8.4, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.5, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -4.3, "fcf_yield": -4.1, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 14.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.6, "fix_assets": 14.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.04, "capex_dep": 2.78, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 36.1, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 38.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": -10.4, "rev_yoy": -10.6, "np_yoy": 28.4, "np_vol": 180.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 118.7, "fwd_pe2": 93.7, "fwd_g1": 60.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 4.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["光学玻璃产品", 24.0], ["光学玻璃", 24.0], ["防务产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.3, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": 108.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": -30.7, "ret_120": 3.6, "ret_250": -22.5, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 59.5, "pos_52w": 55.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 43, "hard": 43, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 190.0 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 2.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 190.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -31% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "光电股份:PE 比行业中位高 82.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}