{"F": {"ts_code": "600183.SH", "name": "生益科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 137.5, "pe_ttm": 64.2972, "pb": 18.0517, "dv_ttm": 0.8728, "total_mv": 33398800.875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.8, 26.8, 22.0, 19.2, 22.0, 26.5], "rev_series": [146.9, 202.7, 180.1, 165.9, 203.9, 284.3], "np_series": [16.8, 28.3, 15.3, 11.6, 17.4, 33.3], "roe_series": [18.0, 24.6, 11.5, 8.5, 12.0, 21.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 347.8, "np_ttm": 51.9, "ocf_ttm": 63.1, "fcf_ttm": 30.2, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 22.0, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.8, "fix_assets": 126.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 18.05, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 63.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 50.3, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 86.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.4, "np_cagr3": 29.6, "rev_yoy": 50.0, "np_yoy": 130.4, "np_vol": 53.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 48.6, "fwd_pe2": 31.3, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 55.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["覆铜板业务", 33.0], ["线路板业务", 15.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 217.3, "ret_prev2_year": 38.5, "ret_ytd": 94.7, "ret_pivot": 821.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -8.2, "ret_120": 119.5, "ret_250": 182.5, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 72.4, "pos_52w": 73.5}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 45, "hard": 48, "bondness": 42}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 130%,PE TTM 64.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 48.6 倍,PEG 0.88。", "自由现金流 30.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 55%(15 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.3 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 182%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -8% / 120%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "生益科技:PE 比行业中位低 0.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点。"]}}