{"F": {"ts_code": "600176.SH", "name": "中国巨石", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻纤制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.18, "pe_ttm": 35.4934, "pb": 4.8513, "dv_ttm": 0.8919, "total_mv": 16084603.2606, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.8, 45.3, 35.6, 28.0, 25.0, 33.1], "rev_series": [116.7, 197.1, 201.9, 148.8, 158.6, 188.8], "np_series": [24.2, 60.3, 66.1, 30.4, 24.4, 32.9], "roe_series": [14.6, 30.1, 26.4, 10.8, 8.3, 10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 209.3, "np_ttm": 45.3, "ocf_ttm": 51.8, "fcf_ttm": 19.9, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 21.2, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.0, "fix_assets": 380.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 4.85, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 142.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 39.9, "debt_mv": 8.9, "payout": 39.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.2, "np_cagr3": -20.8, "rev_yoy": 22.5, "np_yoy": 73.9, "np_vol": 69.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 31, "fwd_pe": 22.7, "fwd_pe2": 16.0, "fwd_g1": 57.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["玻纤及制品", 49.0], ["玻纤及其制品相关", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.7, "ret_prev2_year": 20.5, "ret_ytd": 137.6, "ret_pivot": 361.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.5, "ret_60": -2.2, "ret_120": 55.1, "ret_250": 203.9, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 69.0, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 53, "hard": 100, "bondness": 44}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 74%,PE TTM 35.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 22.7 倍,PEG 0.54。", "自由现金流 19.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 42%(31 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.5 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 204%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -2% / 55%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "中国巨石:PE 比行业中位低 32.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点。"]}}