{"F": {"ts_code": "600173.SH", "name": "卧龙新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.17, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2074, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 432212.3254, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.9, 33.9, 18.4, 9.8, 14.9, 16.7], "rev_series": [22.8, 25.0, 47.3, 47.6, 36.1, 30.3], "np_series": [4.8, 4.8, 3.1, 1.6, 0.4, -1.9], "roe_series": [16.4, 14.0, 8.6, 4.4, 1.1, -5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.3, "np_ttm": -2.5, "ocf_ttm": 7.2, "fcf_ttm": -8.3, "fcf_yield": -19.3, "ocf_yield": 16.6, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 8.1, "gm_stab": 0.52, "gm_chg_2022": -30.5, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.5, "fix_assets": 32.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 14.32, "interest_debt": 19.6, "debt_ebitda": 14.1, "debt_ratio": 46.9, "debt_mv": 45.4, "payout": 25.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -13.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -46.3, "np_yoy": -81.7, "np_vol": 111.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["房产销售", 28.0], ["储能设备收入", 22.0], ["储能系统", 22.0], ["光伏发电收入", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.1, "ret_prev2_year": -19.8, "ret_ytd": -13.5, "ret_pivot": 65.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.8, "ret_60": -4.9, "ret_120": -21.7, "ret_250": -6.1, "mdd_250": -45.9, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 59.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 62, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -30.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 14.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 52%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -19.3%(经营现金流/市值 16.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 52%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -30.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 14.32 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -5% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "卧龙新能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.5个百分点。"]}}