{"F": {"ts_code": "600171.SH", "name": "上海贝岭", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980924", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.68, "pe_ttm": 74.3536, "pb": 3.5305, "dv_ttm": 0.5291, "total_mv": 1607838.0444, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.9, 34.1, 34.1, 29.5, 28.2, 27.6], "rev_series": [13.3, 20.2, 20.4, 21.4, 28.2, 31.7], "np_series": [5.3, 7.3, 4.0, -0.6, 4.0, 2.4], "roe_series": [16.7, 20.2, 9.8, -1.5, 9.3, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.3, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 5.2, "npm_median": 14.0, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 13.7, "pb_calc": 3.53, "capex_dep": 1.86, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 14.5, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 33.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.8, "np_cagr3": -16.0, "rev_yoy": 19.2, "np_yoy": -14.9, "np_vol": 322.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["集成电路生产销售", 25.0], ["集成电路产品销售合同", 25.0], ["成电路产品销售合同", 25.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.0, "ret_prev2_year": 184.8, "ret_ytd": -27.1, "ret_pivot": 14.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -13.1, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -39.3, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 58, "hard": 4, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 74.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 1.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 74.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -13% / -25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "上海贝岭:PE 比行业中位低 7.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}