{"F": {"ts_code": "600165.SH", "name": "宁科生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.7178, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 507387.4818, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.9, 12.4, 0.1, -34.6, -19.5, -20.0], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.9, 6.0, 2.9, 3.5, 4.4], "np_series": [0.2, -0.2, -2.1, -4.6, -5.4, -0.9], "roe_series": [2.3, -2.5, -28.6, -141.0, -630.5, -14.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_yield": -13.3, "ocf_yield": -7.6, "gm_median": -19.5, "gm_std": 16.6, "gm_stab": 1.85, "gm_chg_2022": -12.9, "npm_median": -40.9, "roe_median": -28.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 69.4, "fix_assets": 16.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.72, "capex_dep": 2.38, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -9.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.3, "np_yoy": 22.5, "np_vol": 99.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["长链二元酸", 26.0], ["生物法长链二元酸", 26.0], ["活性炭", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 302.9, "ret_prev2_year": -28.1, "ret_ytd": -24.3, "ret_pivot": 270.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 29.8, "ret_60": 12.5, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": 72.7, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 85.8, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 69%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -19.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点;资产负债率 49%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 69%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -19.5%,稳定度 185%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.3%(经营现金流/市值 -7.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -19.5%,稳定度 185%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 69%,资本开支/折旧 2.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 73%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 30% / 12% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "宁科生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 41.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.9个百分点。"]}}