{"F": {"ts_code": "600162.SH", "name": "香江控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.69, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6747, "dv_ttm": 0.106, "total_mv": 1532897.4689, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.1, 37.3, 31.9, 36.6, 29.2, 36.6], "rev_series": [49.8, 57.0, 60.5, 33.0, 37.6, 14.4], "np_series": [2.8, 1.9, 2.4, 0.7, 0.6, -0.9], "roe_series": [5.3, 3.0, 3.5, 1.1, 1.0, -1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.2, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 36.6, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -11.2, "npm_median": -1.5, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.67, "capex_dep": 0.04, "interest_debt": 30.4, "debt_ebitda": 19.7, "debt_ratio": 66.8, "debt_mv": 19.8, "payout": 404.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -38.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.7, "np_yoy": 16.0, "np_vol": 94.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["商贸物流基地商业物业销售", 15.0], ["商贸流通运营", 15.0], ["商品房、商铺及卖场销售", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.1, "ret_prev2_year": 21.7, "ret_ytd": 154.2, "ret_pivot": 256.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 26.1, "ret_60": 49.1, "ret_120": 148.8, "ret_250": 164.2, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 69.3, "pos_52w": 87.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 6, "bondness": 71}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 67%,有息负债 30 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.6%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.04 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 164%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 49% / 149%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "香江控股:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}