{"F": {"ts_code": "600160.SH", "name": "巨化股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "氟化工", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.92, "pe_ttm": 23.359, "pb": 4.641, "dv_ttm": 1.4768, "total_mv": 10237437.2112, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.3, 14.1, 19.1, 13.2, 17.5, 28.2], "rev_series": [160.5, 179.9, 214.9, 206.6, 244.6, 269.9], "np_series": [1.0, 11.1, 23.8, 9.4, 19.6, 37.8], "roe_series": [0.8, 8.6, 16.5, 6.0, 11.6, 19.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 270.0, "np_ttm": 43.8, "ocf_ttm": 59.3, "fcf_ttm": -21.6, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 9.8, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 11.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.8, "fix_assets": 214.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 4.64, "capex_dep": 5.43, "interest_debt": 91.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 38.7, "debt_mv": 8.9, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": 16.7, "rev_yoy": 0.1, "np_yoy": 29.2, "np_vol": 404.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 17.8, "fwd_pe2": 14.8, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["制冷剂", 24.0], ["石化材料", 6.0], ["基础化工产品及其它", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.3, "ret_prev2_year": 49.6, "ret_ytd": 0.2, "ret_pivot": 139.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.4, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": -1.1, "ret_250": 11.1, "mdd_250": -32.3, "vol_250": 47.3, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 44, "hard": 83, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 5.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.4 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -8% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "巨化股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点。"]}}