{"F": {"ts_code": "600157.SH", "name": "永泰能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980513", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.55, "pe_ttm": 195.1835, "pb": 0.7243, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3381753.4355, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.2, 22.5, 21.5, 27.4, 25.1, 20.8], "rev_series": [221.4, 270.8, 355.6, 301.2, 283.6, 238.2], "np_series": [44.8, 10.6, 19.1, 22.7, 15.6, 2.1], "roe_series": [13.7, 2.5, 4.4, 5.0, 3.3, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 235.7, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 61.1, "fcf_ttm": 53.5, "fcf_yield": 15.8, "ocf_yield": 18.1, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.2, "fix_assets": 333.3, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 0.72, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 270.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 51.1, "debt_mv": 80.0, "payout": 10.9, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -12.5, "np_cagr3": -52.2, "rev_yoy": -2.3, "np_yoy": -28.1, "np_vol": 58.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 59.3, "fwd_pe2": 32.3, "fwd_g1": 229.0, "fwd_g2": 84.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电力业务", 22.0], ["电力", 22.0], ["煤炭业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.2, "ret_prev2_year": 25.8, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 47.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -6.6, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": 3.3, "mdd_250": -24.6, "vol_250": 34.2, "pos_52w": 76.4}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 48, "hard": 48, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 195.2 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.8%(经营现金流/市值 18.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 195.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -7% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "永泰能源:PE 比行业中位高 167.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.5个百分点。"]}}