{"F": {"ts_code": "600153.SH", "name": "建发股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980616", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.47, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.5919, "dv_ttm": 8.2645, "total_mv": 2455909.1942, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.4, 3.6, 3.8, 4.4, 5.9, 5.6], "rev_series": [4329.5, 7078.4, 8328.1, 7636.8, 7013.0, 6712.7], "np_series": [45.0, 61.0, 62.8, 131.0, 29.5, -108.1], "roe_series": [13.0, 13.7, 11.5, 20.5, 4.2, -16.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6597.3, "np_ttm": -106.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": -32.2, "fcf_yield": -13.1, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 4.4, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.3, "fix_assets": 113.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.42, "capex_dep": 4.47, "interest_debt": 2156.6, "debt_ebitda": 24.0, "debt_ratio": 78.8, "debt_mv": 878.1, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.7, "np_yoy": 17.6, "np_vol": 202.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 11.0, "fwd_pe2": 7.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 0.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["供应链运营业务", 43.0], ["房地产开发", 4.0], ["房地产业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.2, "ret_prev2_year": 21.1, "ret_ytd": -0.9, "ret_pivot": 38.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -4.5, "ret_120": -5.4, "ret_250": -21.2, "mdd_250": -27.8, "vol_250": 29.3, "pos_52w": 77.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 2, "bondness": 83}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 51%、股息率 8.3%、营收 3 年复合 -6.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 24.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 4.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -4% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "建发股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点。"]}}