{"F": {"ts_code": "600151.SH", "name": "航天机电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980605", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.84, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.1965, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1411304.2632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.3, 9.0, 7.8, 7.4, 9.5, 9.4], "rev_series": [60.9, 62.9, 88.0, 92.3, 53.5, 36.1], "np_series": [1.7, 0.6, -1.0, -4.3, -0.7, -4.5], "roe_series": [3.2, 1.1, -1.9, -8.3, -1.5, -9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.6, "np_ttm": -2.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 9.0, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": -1.7, "roe_median": -1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.8, "fix_assets": 22.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.2, "capex_dep": 0.1, "interest_debt": 8.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 29.7, "debt_mv": 5.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -25.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -18.8, "np_yoy": 93.8, "np_vol": 209.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["发动机制冷系统", 16.0], ["PTC/发动机制冷系统", 16.0], ["座舱空调系统", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 119.9, "ret_prev2_year": 21.1, "ret_ytd": -43.9, "ret_pivot": 93.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": -12.3, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": 23.9, "mdd_250": -62.5, "vol_250": 64.5, "pos_52w": 43.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 52, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -12% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "航天机电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}