{"F": {"ts_code": "600150.SH", "name": "中国船舶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航海装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航海装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航海装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.47, "pe_ttm": 20.1064, "pb": 1.8507, "dv_ttm": 0.9741, "total_mv": 28198503.0111, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.7, 10.6, 7.6, 10.6, 10.2, 12.6], "rev_series": [552.4, 597.4, 595.6, 748.4, 785.8, 1519.8], "np_series": [3.1, 2.1, 1.7, 29.6, 36.1, 78.5], "roe_series": [1.0, 0.5, 0.4, 6.3, 7.3, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2031.8, "np_ttm": 148.6, "ocf_ttm": 163.3, "fcf_ttm": 117.9, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.5, "fix_assets": 571.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 0.96, "interest_debt": 211.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 62.4, "debt_mv": 7.5, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 36.7, "np_cagr3": 257.4, "rev_yoy": 26.0, "np_yoy": 163.5, "np_vol": 641.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 14.6, "fwd_pe2": 10.8, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["船舶修造及海洋工程", 45.0], ["机电设备及其他", 5.0], ["材料销售", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.9, "ret_prev2_year": 23.5, "ret_ytd": 13.9, "ret_pivot": 12.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": 9.9, "ret_120": 7.6, "ret_250": 1.1, "mdd_250": -22.9, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 90.5}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 40, "hard": 22, "bondness": 20}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 164%,PE TTM 20.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.6 倍,PEG 0.42。", "自由现金流 117.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 35%(14 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.96 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.1 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 10% / 8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航海装备Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 30.4 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 30%。", "中国船舶:PE 比行业中位低 10.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}