{"F": {"ts_code": "600149.SH", "name": "廊坊发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "热力服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991014", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.17, "pe_ttm": 137.3617, "pb": 7.8415, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 196542.72, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.0, 19.8, 8.7, 7.8, 39.6, 36.8], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.2, 2.1, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.0, -0.1, -0.1, 0.8, 0.2], "roe_series": [5.7, 1.2, -5.0, -9.6, 44.8, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 19.8, "gm_std": 13.5, "gm_stab": 0.32, "gm_chg_2022": -27.2, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.9, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 7.4, "pb_calc": 7.84, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 31.9, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.7, "np_yoy": -25.5, "np_vol": 382.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["供热制冷", 49.0], ["供热、制冷产品销售", 49.0], ["集成房屋业务(租赁业务)", 1.0], ["房屋租赁业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.3, "ret_prev2_year": -27.5, "ret_ytd": 3.6, "ret_pivot": 48.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": 2.6, "ret_120": -17.5, "ret_250": -11.0, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 42.1, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 25, "hard": 54, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 137 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 32%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 32%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 32%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -27.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 137.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 3% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "廊坊发展:PE 比行业中位高 109.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 26.8个百分点。"]}}