{"F": {"ts_code": "600148.SH", "name": "长春一东", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.17, "pe_ttm": 120.7216, "pb": 5.0248, "dv_ttm": 0.233, "total_mv": 242983.8305, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 24.3, 20.1, 20.0, 15.5, 16.2], "rev_series": [11.6, 11.2, 5.5, 7.0, 6.9, 7.7], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0, -0.0, 0.1], "roe_series": [12.4, 8.5, -1.7, 0.1, -0.5, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 0.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.0, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.02, "capex_dep": 2.12, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 53.4, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 343.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.1, "np_yoy": 278.9, "np_vol": 340.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.1, "ret_prev2_year": 8.9, "ret_ytd": -12.1, "ret_pivot": 13.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.5, "ret_60": 5.1, "ret_120": -9.4, "ret_250": -21.3, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 29.4, "pos_52w": 78.4}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 43, "hard": 14, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 121 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 120.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 5% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "长春一东:PE 比行业中位高 90.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.5个百分点。"]}}