{"F": {"ts_code": "600143.SH", "name": "金发科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040623", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.69, "pe_ttm": 29.29, "pb": 1.8636, "dv_ttm": 1.457, "total_mv": 3659745.3727, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.8, 16.6, 15.2, 12.0, 11.3, 13.3], "rev_series": [350.6, 402.0, 404.1, 479.4, 605.1, 654.0], "np_series": [45.9, 16.6, 19.9, 3.2, 8.2, 11.5], "roe_series": [36.1, 11.1, 12.6, 1.9, 4.8, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 678.8, "np_ttm": 12.5, "ocf_ttm": 70.7, "fcf_ttm": 49.0, "fcf_yield": 13.4, "ocf_yield": 19.3, "gm_median": 13.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.4, "fix_assets": 280.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.86, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 273.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 67.5, "debt_mv": 74.6, "payout": 84.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.4, "np_cagr3": -16.7, "rev_yoy": 7.8, "np_yoy": 17.0, "np_vol": 86.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 20.7, "fwd_pe2": 15.7, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["改性塑料", 23.0], ["贸易品", 9.0], ["材料贸易", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 131.9, "ret_prev2_year": 9.9, "ret_ytd": -29.2, "ret_pivot": 98.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.7, "ret_60": -10.1, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -16.5, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 40, "hard": 66, "bondness": 53}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.4%(经营现金流/市值 19.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.3 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -10% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "金发科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点。"]}}