{"F": {"ts_code": "600141.SH", "name": "兴发集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "磷肥及磷化工", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990616", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.19, "pe_ttm": 22.6637, "pb": 1.4541, "dv_ttm": 1.6485, "total_mv": 3628052.7581, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, 33.4, 35.6, 16.2, 19.5, 18.0], "rev_series": [183.9, 237.1, 303.1, 281.1, 284.0, 293.0], "np_series": [6.2, 42.4, 58.5, 13.8, 16.0, 14.9], "roe_series": [6.9, 35.9, 34.1, 6.7, 7.6, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 321.3, "np_ttm": 16.0, "ocf_ttm": 7.6, "fcf_ttm": -20.0, "fcf_yield": -5.5, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 22.2, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 63.3, "fix_assets": 356.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 166.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 51.2, "debt_mv": 45.8, "payout": 48.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.1, "np_cagr3": -36.6, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": 15.0, "np_vol": 239.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["农药", 8.0], ["新能源", 7.0], ["特种化学品与新材料系列", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.7, "ret_prev2_year": 25.1, "ret_ytd": -11.4, "ret_pivot": 85.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -6.3, "ret_120": -25.0, "ret_250": 13.8, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 54.7, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 41, "hard": 100, "bondness": 55}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 63%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 22.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 63%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 22.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 63%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.7 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -6% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "兴发集团:PE 比行业中位高 1.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.7个百分点。"]}}