{"F": {"ts_code": "600138.SH", "name": "中青旅", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "人工景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.32, "pe_ttm": 136.5998, "pb": 0.8371, "dv_ttm": 0.4918, "total_mv": 529850.88, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.4, 18.5, 16.0, 24.5, 23.1, 19.8], "rev_series": [71.5, 86.4, 64.2, 96.3, 99.6, 113.4], "np_series": [-2.3, 0.2, -3.3, 1.9, 1.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [-3.6, 0.3, -5.4, 3.2, 2.6, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 118.6, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 10.8, "fcf_ttm": 10.3, "fcf_yield": 19.4, "ocf_yield": 20.4, "gm_median": 19.8, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.3, "fix_assets": 52.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.84, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 58.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.8, "debt_ratio": 50.4, "debt_mv": 110.3, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 20.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.7, "np_yoy": -66.9, "np_vol": 692.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 48.8, "fwd_pe2": 36.6, "fwd_g1": 180.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["IT产品销售与技术服务收入", 17.0], ["IT产品销售与技术服务", 17.0], ["旅游产品服务收入", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.9, "ret_prev2_year": -3.8, "ret_ytd": -25.6, "ret_pivot": -18.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 0.7, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -27.8, "mdd_250": -38.8, "vol_250": 20.7, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 45, "hard": 48, "bondness": 29}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 19.4%(经营现金流/市值 20.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 136.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 1% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "中青旅:PE 比行业中位高 69.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}