{"F": {"ts_code": "600132.SH", "name": "重庆啤酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "啤酒", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.98, "pe_ttm": 16.6539, "pb": 12.2156, "dv_ttm": 6.2531, "total_mv": 1934916.8576, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.6, 50.9, 50.5, 49.1, 48.6, 50.9], "rev_series": [109.4, 131.2, 140.4, 148.1, 146.4, 147.2], "np_series": [10.8, 11.7, 12.6, 13.4, 11.1, 12.3], "roe_series": [107.5, 99.7, 66.3, 63.7, 67.0, 96.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 144.6, "np_ttm": 11.6, "ocf_ttm": 25.7, "fcf_ttm": 22.2, "fcf_yield": 11.5, "ocf_yield": 13.3, "gm_median": 50.5, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 18.3, "roe_median": 67.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.8, "fix_assets": 44.2, "goodwill_ratio": 5.8, "pb_calc": 12.22, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 71.9, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 104.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.6, "np_cagr3": -0.9, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": -8.0, "np_vol": 10.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 30, "fwd_pe": 15.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.2, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 3.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["啤酒", 49.0], ["高档", 30.0], ["主流", 17.0], ["包装物、废料销售及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.4, "ret_prev2_year": 1.5, "ret_ytd": -21.7, "ret_pivot": -17.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.3, "ret_60": -16.7, "ret_120": -30.1, "ret_250": -25.9, "mdd_250": -32.3, "vol_250": 22.3, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 67, "hard": 59, "bondness": 83}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 44 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 50.5%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 11.5%,股息率 6.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 70%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(毛利率 50.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.5%(经营现金流/市值 13.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.5%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.7 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -17% / -30%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "重庆啤酒:PE 比行业中位低 6.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点。"]}}