{"F": {"ts_code": "600130.SH", "name": "波导股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.57, "pe_ttm": 689.1851, "pb": 3.7766, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 342750.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.2, 11.2, 12.5, 12.8, 13.2, 15.6], "rev_series": [7.2, 7.9, 5.3, 4.2, 3.6, 4.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [3.7, 4.5, 1.8, 1.4, 0.5, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 7.3, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.3, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 3.78, "capex_dep": 0.53, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.2, "np_cagr3": -34.0, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": -7.0, "np_vol": 34.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["车载模组", 19.0], ["车载中控板", 19.0], ["手机及配件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.2, "ret_prev2_year": -1.9, "ret_ytd": 9.1, "ret_pivot": 12.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.0, "ret_60": 1.3, "ret_120": 0.0, "ret_250": 24.5, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 44.8, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 7, "bondness": 20}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 689.2 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.53 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 689.2 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 1% / 0%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "波导股份:PE 比行业中位高 642.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.5个百分点。"]}}