{"F": {"ts_code": "600128.SH", "name": "苏豪弘业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "贸易Ⅱ", "sw3": "贸易Ⅲ", "ind": "贸易Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.5, "pe_ttm": 48.8165, "pb": 1.0035, "dv_ttm": 1.7059, "total_mv": 213943.895, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.8, 5.9, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.1], "rev_series": [44.2, 53.2, 61.6, 67.2, 71.6, 77.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [1.8, 1.7, 1.8, 1.6, 1.6, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 71.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 6.1, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 5.3, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.3, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 2.85, "interest_debt": 9.4, "debt_ebitda": 21.8, "debt_ratio": 58.5, "debt_mv": 43.8, "payout": 74.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": 7.8, "rev_yoy": -16.2, "np_yoy": -16.9, "np_vol": 19.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["能源化工", 32.0], ["轻工工艺品", 8.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.7, "ret_prev2_year": -16.5, "ret_ytd": -21.6, "ret_pivot": 31.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -24.3, "ret_250": -20.4, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 30.1, "pos_52w": 69.6}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 42, "hard": 5, "bondness": 63}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.8 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 5.3%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 21.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.85 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 0% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贸易Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 12.4 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 4.7% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 59%。", "苏豪弘业:PE 比行业中位高 36.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}