{"F": {"ts_code": "600126.SH", "name": "杭钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.28, "pe_ttm": 140.5722, "pb": 1.0919, "dv_ttm": 0.0796, "total_mv": 2120874.7548, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.1, 5.5, 2.7, 1.5, 0.2, 1.8], "rev_series": [324.3, 499.6, 433.2, 558.3, 636.6, 523.3], "np_series": [11.3, 16.4, 4.8, 1.8, -6.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [5.9, 8.2, 2.4, 0.9, -3.2, 0.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 352.7, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 31.9, "fcf_ttm": 18.1, "fcf_yield": 8.5, "ocf_yield": 15.0, "gm_median": 1.8, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.03, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.3, "fix_assets": 111.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.09, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 22.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 35.7, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": -63.1, "rev_yoy": -57.5, "np_yoy": 111.0, "np_vol": 191.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 314.0, "fwd_pe2": 209.3, "fwd_g1": -55.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 6.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["热轧钢材", 27.0], ["原燃料", 9.0], ["OEM钢材", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.8, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": 83.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": -32.1, "ret_250": -38.5, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 52.1, "pos_52w": 57.9}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 7, "hard": 58, "bondness": 45}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.8%,稳定度 3%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.5%(经营现金流/市值 15.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.8%,稳定度 3%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 140.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -5% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "杭钢股份:PE 比行业中位高 116.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.9个百分点。"]}}