{"F": {"ts_code": "600125.SH", "name": "铁龙物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "铁路运输", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.43, "pe_ttm": 13.3311, "pb": 0.8957, "dv_ttm": 2.2284, "total_mv": 708898.3917, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.5, 4.4, 6.8, 6.0, 7.2, 8.8], "rev_series": [151.7, 178.9, 117.4, 146.9, 130.2, 114.9], "np_series": [4.0, 3.4, 3.4, 4.7, 3.8, 5.3], "roe_series": [6.6, 5.3, 5.2, 6.9, 5.3, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 113.8, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 8.7, "fcf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_yield": 9.1, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 6.8, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.5, "fix_assets": 50.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.9, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 26.4, "debt_mv": 7.8, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.7, "np_cagr3": 15.9, "rev_yoy": -2.1, "np_yoy": 1.8, "np_vol": 25.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 10.9, "fwd_pe2": 9.5, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["供应链管理业务", 31.0], ["铁路特种集装箱运输及物流业务", 12.0], ["铁路货运及临港物流业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.4, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 8.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": -7.3, "mdd_250": -26.3, "vol_250": 22.6, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 39, "hard": 74, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.3 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%、固定资产占比 46%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.1%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.3 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 0% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "铁龙物流:PE 比行业中位低 2.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 25.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.5个百分点。"]}}