{"F": {"ts_code": "600123.SH", "name": "兰花科创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.05, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6806, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1038634.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 47.5, 54.5, 41.7, 26.1, 18.9], "rev_series": [66.3, 128.6, 141.6, 132.8, 117.0, 81.4], "np_series": [3.7, 23.5, 32.2, 21.0, 7.2, -5.4], "roe_series": [3.5, 19.8, 22.6, 13.1, 4.4, -3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 88.8, "np_ttm": -5.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": -11.5, "fcf_yield": -11.1, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 41.7, "gm_std": 13.3, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": 20.1, "npm_median": 15.6, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 44.2, "fix_assets": 163.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.68, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 159.4, "debt_ebitda": 10.1, "debt_ratio": 60.4, "debt_mv": 153.5, "payout": 42.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -16.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.3, "np_yoy": 44.6, "np_vol": 244.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 29.8, "fwd_pe2": 20.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 0.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["煤炭产品", 30.0], ["煤炭", 30.0], ["化肥", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -29.7, "ret_prev2_year": -17.1, "ret_ytd": 19.3, "ret_pivot": -11.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 5.1, "ret_120": -2.2, "ret_250": 2.3, "mdd_250": -27.5, "vol_250": 34.8, "pos_52w": 95.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 71, "bondness": 50}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 60%,有息负债 159 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 44%、毛利率 41.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(煤炭)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.7%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 20.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 5% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "兰花科创:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}