{"F": {"ts_code": "600121.SH", "name": "郑州煤电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.3743, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 623826.944, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.0, 33.9, 35.9, 30.6, 24.8, 14.4], "rev_series": [27.9, 32.1, 44.2, 43.2, 42.0, 35.5], "np_series": [-9.4, -2.1, 0.7, 0.3, 2.8, -9.3], "roe_series": [-41.4, -12.7, 4.2, 2.0, 16.2, -65.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.2, "np_ttm": -10.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 30.6, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 23.9, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 51.3, "fix_assets": 68.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.37, "capex_dep": 0.91, "interest_debt": 33.4, "debt_ebitda": 19.3, "debt_ratio": 84.5, "debt_mv": 53.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -7.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -23.4, "np_yoy": -51.3, "np_vol": 392.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["煤炭", 42.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.7, "ret_prev2_year": 6.7, "ret_ytd": 22.8, "ret_pivot": 62.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 28.0, "ret_60": 14.8, "ret_120": -9.4, "ret_250": 22.8, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 60.6, "pos_52w": 85.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 82, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -10.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 84%,有息负债 33 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 51%、毛利率 30.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(煤炭)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 23.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 0.91 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 15% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "郑州煤电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点。"]}}