{"F": {"ts_code": "600118.SH", "name": "中国卫星", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航天装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航天装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航天装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.62, "pe_ttm": 677.1929, "pb": 10.6384, "dv_ttm": 0.0208, "total_mv": 6813502.1942, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.8, 12.9, 10.6, 11.9, 11.8, 8.8], "rev_series": [70.1, 70.6, 82.4, 68.8, 51.6, 61.0], "np_series": [3.5, 2.3, 2.9, 1.6, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [6.1, 3.9, 4.7, 2.5, 0.4, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 11.8, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 9.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.64, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 8.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 41.2, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.5, "np_cagr3": -50.1, "rev_yoy": 42.7, "np_yoy": 213.4, "np_vol": 41.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 909.8, "fwd_pe2": 493.9, "fwd_g1": -26.0, "fwd_g2": 84.0, "peg": 10.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["宇航制造及卫星应用", 50.0], ["卫星研制及卫星应用", 50.0], ["租赁收入", 0.0], ["材料销售", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 248.0, "ret_prev2_year": 5.9, "ret_ytd": -39.3, "ret_pivot": 175.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.1, "ret_60": -26.1, "ret_120": -34.0, "ret_250": 73.1, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 68.8, "pos_52w": 47.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 10, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 677.2 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 909.8 倍,次年 493.9 倍,PEG 10.83。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 677.2 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 73%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -26% / -34%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航天装备Ⅱ」9 家中位:PE 237.1 / 股息率 0.1% / 毛利率 35.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 36%。", "中国卫星:PE 比行业中位高 440.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点。"]}}