{"F": {"ts_code": "600117.SH", "name": "西宁特钢", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971015", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.29, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1547, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 745421.3121, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.8, 8.4, -0.9, -6.7, -6.8, -5.8], "rev_series": [100.8, 122.3, 77.6, 49.4, 57.2, 59.2], "np_series": [0.6, -11.5, -11.5, 16.9, -8.6, -9.0], "roe_series": [4.2, -132.8, null, 74.8, -17.4, -21.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.5, "np_ttm": -9.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": -5.8, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 2.0, "gm_chg_2022": -13.7, "npm_median": -21.0, "roe_median": -19.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.1, "fix_assets": 85.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 0.1, "interest_debt": 20.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 58.4, "debt_mv": 27.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.4, "np_yoy": -32.6, "np_vol": 835.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢铁业务", 89.0], ["产品", 34.0], ["钢材销售收入", 32.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.2, "ret_prev2_year": -32.4, "ret_ytd": -19.4, "ret_pivot": 13.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -21.8, "ret_250": -36.0, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 29.0, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 70%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -5.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.7 个百分点;资产负债率 58%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 70%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -5.8%,稳定度 200%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -5.8%,稳定度 200%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 0.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 3% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "西宁特钢:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.7个百分点。"]}}