{"F": {"ts_code": "600116.SH", "name": "三峡水利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970804", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.28, "pe_ttm": 15.6768, "pb": 1.0401, "dv_ttm": 1.9707, "total_mv": 1200825.7412, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.9, 16.5, 10.5, 10.3, 10.3, 12.5], "rev_series": [52.6, 101.8, 110.9, 111.8, 103.2, 101.7], "np_series": [6.2, 8.6, 4.8, 5.2, 3.1, 4.4], "roe_series": [9.3, 8.2, 4.3, 4.6, 2.8, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 103.5, "np_ttm": 7.7, "ocf_ttm": 21.7, "fcf_ttm": 11.8, "fcf_yield": 9.9, "ocf_yield": 18.0, "gm_median": 10.5, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.7, "fix_assets": 123.9, "goodwill_ratio": 12.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.27, "interest_debt": 92.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 52.0, "debt_mv": 76.6, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": -2.9, "rev_yoy": 3.5, "np_yoy": 688.6, "np_vol": 37.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力板块", 30.0], ["电力", 30.0], ["综合能源", 11.0], ["综合能源业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.3, "ret_prev2_year": -5.4, "ret_ytd": -2.1, "ret_pivot": -1.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -9.2, "ret_250": -6.2, "mdd_250": -22.8, "vol_250": 23.2, "pos_52w": 87.8}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 36, "hard": 81, "bondness": 66}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 15.7 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%、固定资产占比 51%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.9%(经营现金流/市值 18.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 1.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.7 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 3% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "三峡水利:PE 比行业中位低 12.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}