{"F": {"ts_code": "600115.SH", "name": "中国东航", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航空机场", "sw3": "航空运输", "ind": "航空机场", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.7171, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 7708620.1083, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-20.7, -19.2, -61.8, 1.1, 4.3, 5.2], "rev_series": [586.4, 671.3, 461.1, 1137.4, 1321.2, 1399.4], "np_series": [-118.3, -122.1, -373.9, -81.7, -42.3, -16.3], "roe_series": [-19.6, -23.2, -92.9, -23.4, -10.4, -4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1473.5, "np_ttm": -23.8, "ocf_ttm": 360.9, "fcf_ttm": 93.6, "fcf_yield": 12.1, "ocf_yield": 46.8, "gm_median": 1.1, "gm_std": 25.5, "gm_stab": -22.15, "gm_chg_2022": -41.0, "npm_median": -7.6, "roe_median": -23.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.9, "fix_assets": 1217.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 2.18, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 1693.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 87.7, "debt_mv": 219.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 44.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.1, "np_yoy": -52.3, "np_vol": 104.5, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["客运服务", 46.0], ["货运服务", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.0, "ret_prev2_year": 3.1, "ret_ytd": -41.8, "ret_pivot": 0.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -5.7, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": -16.3, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 39.8, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 4, "hard": 65, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -23.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 88%,有息负债 1694 亿,经营现金流/市值 46.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.1%,稳定度 -2215%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.1%(经营现金流/市值 46.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.1%,稳定度 -2215%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -41.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -6% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空机场」12 家中位:PE 19.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 11.6% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 40%。", "中国东航:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}