{"F": {"ts_code": "600111.SH", "name": "北方稀土", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "稀土", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970924", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.67, "pe_ttm": 41.4436, "pb": 5.3245, "dv_ttm": 0.3362, "total_mv": 13979459.4486, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.7, 27.8, 27.8, 14.6, 10.2, 12.2], "rev_series": [212.5, 304.1, 372.6, 335.0, 329.7, 425.6], "np_series": [8.3, 51.3, 59.8, 23.7, 10.0, 22.5], "roe_series": [8.3, 39.8, 34.0, 11.4, 4.6, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 495.0, "np_ttm": 33.7, "ocf_ttm": 14.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.47, "gm_chg_2022": 16.1, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 18.7, "fix_assets": 96.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 5.32, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 88.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 37.0, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 12.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": -27.8, "rev_yoy": 36.7, "np_yoy": 120.5, "np_vol": 194.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 31.1, "fwd_pe2": 24.9, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 1.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["生产业务分部", 87.0], ["生产业务", 87.0], ["稀土功能材料及应用产品分部", 21.0], ["稀土功能材料及应用产品", 21.0]], "ret_prev_year": 118.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.2, "ret_ytd": -15.9, "ret_pivot": 136.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -18.6, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -26.4, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 51.6, "pos_52w": 62.1}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 70, "hard": 30, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.4 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 14.6%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 16.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.4 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -19% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "北方稀土:PE 比行业中位高 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}